Perhaps the most frustrating part about the whole release date fiasco surrounding “Tenet” is the lack of information from Warner Bros. We all know that the studio would love to release the film in July, and Christopher Nolan wants to be the filmmaker that ushers in the post-COVID-19 box office with a huge, splashy action epic. But the studio has remained silent on what criteria it’s using to make the decision to either release the film or delay it. That being said, we are getting encouraging information from the National Association of Theatrical Owners (NATO).
According to Business Insider, NATO claims that 90% of the world’s cinemas will be re-opened in time for a July 17 release of “Tenet.” If that’s the case, then Warner Bros. would likely be okay with releasing the film theatrically, making it the first major studio blockbuster to hit cinemas since March. Of course, this is all based on the report that claims WB wants 80% of theaters opened by July to support the release.
It’s unclear how NATO is coming up with that 90% estimate, considering there still aren’t explicit plans for how long it’ll take for cities such as New York City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco to open its theaters. And considering those are the three biggest US markets, you would think that the 90% metric would include those regions. However, if NATO’s outlook is accurate, then we are looking at WB likely releasing the film in July.
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But then again, this is not an emotional decision that WB has to make. “Tenet” is a $200 million blockbuster with a massive marketing expenditure that only gets one chance to make a huge amount of money at the box office. And clearly, the studio has its heart set on the magical milestone of $1 billion in box office receipts. Now, we know that AMC, Regal, and Cinemark are all hoping to be open by July to support the film. But that’s only in the US. What about international markets? Will China be ready to go? Europe? Those are still big questions.
Obviously, it’s in NATO’s best interest to assure the studio that the vast majority of theaters will be open in July. We already know that WB needs to begin its marketing ASAP if it wants to fully support the release of Nolan’s latest. And having the biggest US theater association group saying everything will be okay by July will definitely be good news for WB.
At this point, the current state of affairs makes it seem unlikely that “Tenet” will hit in July. However, as with everything surrounding COVID-19 and the current state of the world, we should probably just sit back and see what happens because it’s likely to change at any moment. And NATO sure thinks things will be better by mid-summer.