There’s just one week left for Television Academy members to cast their votes for the 2018 Primetime Emmy Awards. And while there is hardly a network or contender that isn’t still scrounging for votes at this point many of the races are fairly easy to predict. Yes, it’s not that hard to gauge the collective mindset of 20,000 Emmy voters…until it decidedly is.
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Outstanding Limited Series? “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” is a lock (and that also goes for star Darren Criss in the Lead Actor in a Limited Series or TV movie category). Outstanding Variety Talk Series? It will simply be a shock if “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” doesn’t win for the third year in a row. Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series? Does anyone really not expect Sterling K. Brown to go back-to-back? Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series? I mean, it’s Rachel Bosnahan‘s to lose, right?
Of course, there are some categories which are decidedly closer. We assume “The Handmaid’s Tale” will repeat as Outstanding Drama Series but the Television Academy sure does love “Game of Thrones.” We assume that Donald Glover will repeat for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy, but Bill Hader could easily upset. Still, those races are nowhere near as close as the three that are likely going to make publicists sweat for the next month.
“Atlanta” vs “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” [Outstanding Comedy Series]
Last year everyone assumed Glover’s critically acclaimed FX series would take this category, but “Veep” surprised by winning for the third year in a row. With the HBO staple taking a year off there’s now room for a new winner. In theory, the smart money should be on “Atlanta.” It’s second season was even more critically acclaimed than the first and it jumped from 5 nominations in its first season to 16 this time around including four acting nods (impressive). It also won the major honors at the PGA and WGA Awards earlier this year showing broad industry support. But then there’s Amazon’s breakout hit waiting in the wings. Besides being a textbook case of the type of classy, well-made period comedy Emmy voters would go nuts for, “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” earned 14 nominations in its first go around including three acting nominations. Amazon has also spent significantly on their campaign with outdoor that – arguably – pops more than FX’s ads for “Atlanta.” And “Atlanta’s” ratings are solid for FX, but how many people have seen “Mrs. Maisel” in the general voting membership? Moreover, could both shows split the vote and find HBO’s higher rated“Curb Your Enthusiasm,” now an eight-time nominee in this category, taking the trophy? Ponder.