After the triple play of Venice, Telluride and Toronto the film festival world has collected itself and is ready for its second wind.
On Friday, the 54th New York Film Festival will get underway with Ava DuVernay’s Netflix documentary “13th” before closing over two weeks later (whew) on Oct. 16. Next Friday, Oct. 6, the five-day Hamptons International Film Festival will kick off with Jeff Nichols’ “Loving.” Both events are major opportunities for contenders to screen in a prestige setting for guild and, most importantly, Academy members. Comparably, both festivals are more indicative of Academy tastes than say, Toronto (ouch).
NYFF* will also feature the world premiere of two highly anticipated films: Ang Lee’s “Billy Lynn’s Halftime Walk” and Mike Mills’ “20th Century Women.” It will also feature the first public New York screenings of “Moonlight,” “Jackie,” “Manchester by the Sea,” “Patterson” and “Toni Erdmann,” among others. “Manchester,” “Moonlight” and “20th Century” will also screen at the Hamptons as well as “La La Land,” “Bleed for This” and “Lion.”
*Yes, James Gray’s “The Lost City of Z” is closing New York, but word is it’s not an awards movie and it is 100% not coming out this year.
The question is who will benefit the most from the New York Metro two-fer? Does “La La Land” win over the Broadway contingent that treks out to the Hamptons? Will “Manchester,” “Jackie,” “Patterson” and/or “Moonlight” make headway with the intellectual cinephiles? Will “Lion” work its magic on the older Hamptons crowd? It’s all fun to speculate and ponder about until you realize…
…4,000 or so Academy members live in Los Angeles.
But, hey, every vote and buzzworthy screening counts, right?
There aren’t any changes to this week’s Best Picture rankings although some dramatic shifts could occur over the next two weeks. In the meantime, here’s a rundown of where the current top contenders stand.
Also, check out my predictions for the other major categories that will be updated on a regular basis at the bottom of this post. Make sure to visit The Playlist during NYFF as founder Rodrigo Perez reports and reviews from all the major events.
Sept. 28, 2016
1. “La La Land”
Can’t tell you how many conversations this pundit has had over which songs to submit for Best Original song.
2. “Sully”
Remarkably, on track to be the eighth nominated Best Picture nominee Tom Hanks has either starred or voiced a character in.
3. “Fences”
New trailer sets the…stage?
4. “Manchester By The Sea”
Unless Viola Davis changes categories can anyone beat Michelle Williams for Best Supporting Actress?
5. “Moonlight”
Does it win LAFCA or NYFCC?
6. “Lion”
Screen baby, screen.
7. “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
The season’s biggest question mark and anticipation is high.
8. “The Birth of a Nation”
It opens nationwide next week. What will the response be?
9. “Hell or High Water”
Did you know that even after all the fall festival releases its still one of the best-reviewed films of the year? (Really)
10. “Jackie”
Get ready for more accolades after its just announced NYFF screening on Oct. 13.
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing – Coming Soon
Cinematography – Coming Soon
Animated Feature Film – Coming Soon
Foreign Language Film – Coming Soon
Documentary Feature – Coming Soon
Original Score – Coming Soon
Original Song – Coming Soon
Costumes – Coming Soon
Makeup and Hairstyling – Coming Soon
Visual Effects – Coming Soon
Sound Mixing – Coming Soon
Sound Editing – Coming Soon
For more Oscar and industry insight follow Gregory Ellwood on Twitter @TheGregoryE.