As America deals with the aftermath of a mob insurrection at the capital and a record number of COVID cases, the world continues to move forward in the best way it can. And that means, yes, for whatever it’s worth the extended 2021 Oscar season continues. Over the next seven weeks, there will be six new Best Picture contenders that will attempt to sway the opinions of AMPAS members before the February 28th deadline. Assuming voters haven’t already settled on their favorites over the holiday break and what’s turning out to be an extended COVID shooting shut down in LA.
READ MORE: “Nomadland” wins Best Film and Three Other National Society of Critics honors
A number of these films have already been screened for select AMPAS members without being uploaded to the organization’s screening site. And other players had their debut for guild and media over the past week. Regardless of these “newcomers” chances at a Best Picture nomination, it goes without saying that“Nomadland” is still your frontrunner to win it all. But, let’s consider these submissions prospects, shall we?
The Russo Brothers‘ “Cherry,” which debuts on Apple TV+ on Feb. 26, needs major SAG support for Tom Holland to have a shot at a Best Actor nomination. In theory, that’s possible. In a weak year for the Cinematography category, Newton Thomas Sigel could earn his first nod. It should be a big “hit” for Apple, however, which is already blanketing parts of LA with a more consumer than FYC media campaign.
“Malcolm & Marie” features a powerhouse performance from Zendya and strong work from John David Washington. The subject matter may be a bit too close to home for even Hollywood, however. Netflix’s most realistic hope is that the Emmy winner crashes the Best Actress category. No matter what the outcome, Zendaya’s powerful fanbase will make it a social media moment when it arrives on Netflix on Feb. 5.
“Land” has not formally screened for all media yet, but a trusted AMPAS member who’d seen it was genuinely impressed. Especially with the performance of Demián Bichir who was previously nominated for Best Actor in 2012 for “A Better Life.” Robin Wright’s directorial debut, the Focus Features release debuts at Sundance in a little over two weeks. It will hit theaters on Feb. 12.
Lee Daniels’ “The United States vs. Billie Holliday,” which just made its way to Hulu, could sway enough votes to earn a Best Picture nod, but the real spotlight should be on Andra Day. Again, the Lead Actress race is getting very, very tight, but she is fantastic. The period piece might also sneak in the Adapted Screenplay, Costumes and Hair and Makeup categories too.
STX Film’s “The Mauritanian” is director Kevin MacDonald’s best narrative effort since “The Last King of Scotland.” If there was any justice, star Tahar Rahim would earn serious Best Actor nomination consideration, but the film seems too under the radar at the moment. The fact it seems so similar to last year’s “The Report” (it’s not) and covers territory the industry isn’t that interested in at the moment (Iraq War, Guantanamo Bay) doesn’t necessarily help. The picture, which also stars Jodie Foster and Shailene Woodley, arrives in theaters on Feb. 19.
”Judas and the Black Messiah,” well, still embargoed from formally discussing, but it’s absolutely in the Best Picture mix. And Lakeith Stanfield and Daniel Kaluuya will make waves in the increasingly crowded Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor categories.
Keeping all that in mind, here’s your first Contender Countdown of 2021.
1 “Nomadland”
Make an argument for any other film to win. No, seriously, make an argument. We’re all ears.
2 “Minari”
Needs some significant guild love or we may have a disheartening “The Farewell” situation all over again. Everyone from Barry Jenkins to Bong Jong-Ho doing their best to hype it though.
3 “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Netflix’s best shot for the Best Picture trophy. Not sure they expected that six months ago.
4 “The Father”
Tearjerker. Works almost every time.
5 “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
In another year would this movie still have the traction it does? Not convinced it would, but this season it’s a likely nominee.
6 “One Night in Miami”
Slowly and surely for Amazon with this one.
7 “Soul”
It’s been 10 years since an animated film earned a Best Picture nomination. Pixar’s latest has an excellent shot at flipping the narrative that it’s not possible anymore.
8 “Promising Young Woman”
Other studios should probably take notice when even AMPAS members in their eighties can’t stop talking about it.
9 “Mank”
On the precipice of Amanda Seyfried landing it just one “major” nomination. Netflix should be concerned.
10 “Judas and the Black Messiah”
How many quality films about social justice and the 1960s can realistically be nominated in one year? Asking for a friend.
11 “News of the World”
Might just slip in, might not even come close.
12 “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
First and foremost, it’s all about Andra Day, but making the Best Picture cut is certainly possible. Hulu’s gotta blow it out with the FYC campaign tho. Time is running out because AMPAS members are picking their favorites now.
13 “Da 5 Bloods”
Probably just a Delroy Lindo play at this point. You do know how many decades it’s been since one company had more than two Best Picture nominees, right?
14 “Sound of Metal”
Could acting branch support for Riz Ahmed and Paul Raci spur enough votes to make the cut? Ponder.
15 “First Cow”
Over the past decade, only one NYFCC Best Film winner wasn’t nominated for Best Picture, “Carol” in 2016.
16 “Land”
A Sundance 2021 surprise. Just in time or a bit too late?
17 “Cherry”
I mean if the growing MCU family in AMPAS rallied behind it, sure. Something tells us Apple TV+’s Tom Hanks player, “Greyhound,” has a better shot.
18 “Malcolm and Marie”
Zendya and John David Washington are in the acting category mix, but…Nah.
2021 Oscar Contenders and Predictions
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor