“Mary Poppins Returns” wasn’t the only film to debut for guild and media this weekend. Adam McKay’s highly anticipated “Vice” screened on Saturday. And for anyone fearing McKay would experience a sophomore slump in terms of his “serious” films, you’ll be happy to know in some ways “Vice” is better than his last feature, the Best Picture-nominated “The Big Short.”
As you’re likely aware, “Vice” attempts to tell the life story of Dick Cheney, the former Vice President of the United States, Defense Secretary and Wyoming Congressman (and war criminal to many). Cheney (Christian Bale), is incredibly secretive, however, making it almost impossible to truly understand his motivations. What “Vice” does do is systematically explain how Cheney was part of an effort to systemically tear down everything that did not benefit rich white men every time Republicans have been in office since the Gerald Ford administration. And that’s pretty much all I can say without this becoming a review, which it’s not. Oscar, on the other hand, is a much easier conversation.
Bale, as expected, is an absolute contender for Best Actor. He not only achieves yet another remarkable physical transformation, but he is able to give nuance to a public figure who has barely allowed any sense of genuine human emotion to ever be captured on camera. My gut currently tells me “Bohemian Rhapsody’s” Rami Malek is the frontrunner to win based on the adoration I’ve witnessed firsthand from SAG and AMPAS voters. That being said Bale is definitely in the hunt as is longtime frontrunner “A Star is Born’s” Bradley Cooper.
Breathe easy gay twitter, it will be shocking if Amy Adams doesn’t earn her sixth Oscar nomination for portraying Cheney’s influential wife, Lynne. Like many of her competitors in the Best Supporting Actress race, Adams’ character disappears for periods of time in “Vice,” but when she’s on screen she’s very, very good. Currently, it looks like it will be a race between her and “If Beale Street Could Talk’s” Regina King for the win. “The Favourite’s” Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz as well as “First Man’s” Claire Foy, “Widows'” Elizabeth Debicki, “Boy Erased’s” Nicole Kidman, “Crazy Rich Asians'” Michelle Yeoh and “Mary Queen of Scots'” Margot Robbie will duke it out for the remaining three slots. Fun, huh?
Supporting Actor is going to be very tricky. Both Steve Carell as Donald Rumsfeld and Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush are worthy nominees. Rockwell screen to appear on screen significantly less than Carell, but has the funnier role. He also is in the Academy’s good graces after winning this same category last year for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Carell, on the other hand, has a character with more of an arc and his work feels slightly more subtle than Rockwell’s. There is some irony in that statement as Rumsfeld is often portrayed in comedic terms as being too blunt for his own good, but it just feels like a deeper turn than Rockwell’s portrayal of Bush (an admittedly hard figure to avoid framing as a caricature). Either could get nominated or both could get nominated. It would be incredibly surprising if somehow neither does. Oh, and at this moment “Green Book’s” Mahershala Ali is the frontrunner to win with “A Star is Born’s” Sam Elliott nipping at his heels.
From a below-the-line perspective well-respected editor Hank Corwin is sitting pretty having previously been recognized in the Best Editing category for “The Big Short.” While “Vice” doesn’t go as far as that film in its use of non-traditional narrative storytelling techniques, Corwin will probably still make the cut. Nicholas Brittell fashions some fine music for McKay, but the composer will likely get his second Oscar nomination for his haunting score for “Beale Street” instead.
Hair and Makeup is actually incredibly competitive this year, but “Vice’s” team appears to have an excellent shot at making the top three (although the category can expand to up to five nominees). Some of this year’s major players include “Border,” “Suspiria,” “Stan & Ollie,” “Mary, Queen of Scots,” “The Favourite,” “Black Panther,” “Uncle Drew” and “Mary Poppins Returns.”
McKay and Charles Randolph won the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar for “Big Short” in 2016. McKay should easily earn a nod in an Original Screenplay category where the fifth nominee is completely up for grabs. “Roma,” “The Favourite, ” “Green Book” and, now, “Vice” seem like locks for the first four. “Eighth Grade,” “First Reformed” and “Sorry to Bother You” are sadly duking it out for the final slot.
Now a second Best Director nomination for McKay seems like the only stretch at this point. With Cooper (“A Star is Born”), Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”), Spike Lee (“Blackkklansman”), Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”), Barry Jenkins (“If Beale Street”), Damien Chazelle (“First Man”) and Ryan Coogler (“Black Panther”) already making it a rough road for the members of the Director’s branch it just feels like McKay’s chances are slim. That being said, if “Vice” resonates enough he could knock Annapurna stablemate Jenkins out of contention.
Lastly, there’s Best Picture and, no surprise, “Vice” should earn that nomination. The film may not have the creative surprises of “Big Short,” but it should – and we’ll use this word once more – resonate with AMPAS voters. “Vice” makes you angry about what Cheney’s true legacy will be and that’s an emotion that members will find very hard to forget.
“Vice” opens nationwide on Christmas day.