Box office forecasting is about as reliable as a weather forecast. The closer you get to a film’s release date, the closer the forecasting will be, and even still, you can always expect for the forecast to be wrong every now and then. This is partly the reason we don’t cover much forecasting news unless we’re close to the release date for a major film. However, recent forecasting is beginning to predict what might happen on the fateful Friday of December 21, and we couldn’t help but take a peek.
Box Office Pro has released early forecasts for the box office totals for films released right before Christmas, and as expected, it looks to be a bloodbath thanks to some questionable scheduling by almost every major studio. For those not aware, December 21 is the date that “Aquaman,” “Bumblebee,” “Welcome to Marwen,” and the untitled PG-13 “Deadpool” all hit theaters. As if that wasn’t enough, the date is preceded by “Mary Poppins Returns,” which hits multiplexes on December 19, a mere two days prior.
What you’re left with is Disney, Warner Bros., Paramount, Fox, and Universal all vying for that coveted Christmas season box office money, leading to a convergence on December 21. Now, taking ‘Marwen’ and ‘Deadpool’ out of the picture, for now, considering the former is a prestige picture that is seen as “counter-programming” and the latter is a re-release of a summertime hit, the big fight looks to be between “Aquaman,” “Bumblebee,” and “Mary Poppins Returns.”
The forecasting says that ‘Mary Poppins’ will have a three-day box office total of $40 million. However, it’s unclear if this is Wednesday to Friday or Friday to Sunday, as the film opens on Wednesday. The report says that “Aquaman” will pull in $45 million, followed by “Bumblebee” with $20 million. Those are mighty low numbers, especially considering the latter two films’ franchise history.
“Bumblebee” is the spin-off from the popular “Transformers” franchise, which has been on hard times lately. That being said, if the $20 million number holds, that would put “Bumblebee” at less than half what ‘The Last Knight’ made in its opening weekend, which is the current franchise-low. The previous franchise-low before ‘The Last Knight’ bombed in 2017 was the original “Transformers,” which debuted at $70 million. Regardless of the quality of the film series, which we can almost all agree is garbage, a $20 million opening for “Bumblebee” has to be seen as a terrible debut.
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Equally as bad would be the $45 million debut for “Aquaman.” The lowest grossing debut for a DCEU film, so far, has been “Justice League,” with a $94 million opening last November. $45 million is clearly a steep drop from that number, and signals that perhaps interest in the film is low, combined with the crazy amount of competition. Early reports say “Aquaman” sports a $160 million price tag, before marketing costs, so $45 million (and a projected domestic total of only $175 domestically) is far from ideal. WB would have to pray that the film performs a lot better overseas.
As for “Mary Poppins Returns,” it’s a pure PG-rated family film that will siphon potential box office dollars from both “Bumblebee” and “Aquaman,” and the seemingly low debut isn’t worrisome. Family films tend to have long legs in the Christmas season and could easily become a weekly beast.
Long story long, it appears that what everyone has been predicting will come true — December 21 will be an incredibly interesting Friday. And even if these numbers inflate quite a bit (as they are sure to do), it looks like the studios are bludgeoning each other to death for that piece of the Christmas pie. We’ll have to see if they end up learning their lesson.