It may only be the beginning of July and Emmy nominations are less than a week away, but the Oscar game is well underfoot. Consultants have been hired, releases dates are being fiddled with and everyone is trying to figure out if the Academy’s new campaigning rules are going to be as annoying as they seem to be. And, as far as we know, Bradley Cooper has stopped randomly screening “A Star Is Born” for friends, relatives and delivery guys (O.K., that last one might be an urban legend, but we’ve heard it around town and we love it).
Moreover, unless a good chunk of the Best Picture players wait till November to screen we’re gonna have a good sense of what’s truly in play after the fall festivals and we mean all the fall festivals. Why? Well, because so many major potential players skipped Cannes it appears there will be more than enough high profile premieres to go around for Venice, Telluride, Toronto and New York (or that’s the buzz going around). That certainly hasn’t been the case the past three seasons or so where Venice and Telluride have dominated the world premiere Oscar conversation. There’s even a chance the LA Film Festival with its smart new Sept 20-26 dates and screening locations at the industry preferred Arclight Hollywood (as opposed to Culver City), the WGA Theater and Beverly Hills’ Attenberg Center (beyond convenient) could make a splash or, at worst, get Academy members to see some films earlier rather than later.
Still, we’ve got a long, long, long road ahead of ourselves. But ponder these questions as you relax on the beach over July 4th holiday.
Is Amy Adams in lead or supporting for Adam McKay’s “Backseat”?
There is no clear answer as of yet, but if she’s supporting it’s slightly less competitive. Could this be the year she finally breaks through with a win?
Are Timothée Chalamet and Steve Carell both leads for “Beautiful Boy”?
Another case were it’s still unclear. Our guess is no as Carell is also potentially campaigning in lead for “Welcome to Marwen.” In either case, get ready for another fun season of Chalamet’s Instagram account chronicling award season.
Are there any potential unseen dark horses out there?
Yes, a number films could be looking for last minute distribution out of the fall festivals such as “The Best of Enemies” with Taraji P. Henson and Sam Rockwell; Claire Denis’ “High Life” with Robert Pattinson and Juliette Binoche; Brian De Palma’s “Domino”; Oliver Assaysas’ “Non-Fiction” (a potential French FLF entry); and, of course, there is Xavier Dolan’s long delayed “Life and Death of John F. Donavan” which I’m sure at this point is fabulous.
Will there be another female best director nominee?
Sadly, it’s may be tough for a woman to earn a nod in this category two years in a row. The four main candidates are Marielle Heller for “Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Josie Rourke for “Mary Queen of Scots,” Mimi Leder for “On the Basis of Sex” and Karyn Kusama for “Destroyer.” All four films are being touted more for the performances of their lead actresses, but Heller is your best bet to breakthrough.
Are there really that many double dippers this year on the acting side?
There sure are. Matthew McConaughy, Steve Carell, Nicole Kidman, Sam Rockwell, Joaquin Phoenix and Emily Blunt all have a shot at earning multiple acting nominations this year.
Are Paramount and A24 sitting this season out?
If you are taking the Best Picture race into account, maybe. Paramount has “A Quiet Place” to champion and, in theory, select nominations for “Annihilation.” A24 could still pick something up, but right now they have a Toni Collette push for “Hereditary” and, potentially, Jonah Hill’s directing debut “Mid ’90s” which may or may not come out this calendar year. Unless it’s France’s selection for the Foreign Language Oscar its unlikely the buzz worthy “Climax” will get a broader awards season push.
Can Netflix crack through that Best Picture nomination ceiling?
They are certainly going to try. Alfonso Cauron’s “Roma” will get a huge push even though it’s likely a Foreign Language nominee lock. Paul Greengrass’ “Norway” is possible as is David Mackenzie’s “Outlaw King” and Susanne Brier’s “Bird Box” with Sandra Bullock. Dan Gilroy’s “Velvet Buzzsaw” with Jake Gyllenhaal is being sold as a more commercial endeavor and it’s unclear if Noah Baumbach‘s second flick for the service will debut in 2018. Oh, and no, baring some last minute change of heart, Martin Scorsese’s “The Irishman” is not in play this season (or is it?).
Did that wet your appetite? Check out some early thoughts on seven initial categories below.
More predictions:
Best Picture
Best Director
Actress
Actor
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Foreign Language Film