Academy members are currently voting for the winners of the 91st Oscars. And after voting, or before, they are letting their anger be known about the Academy and ABC’s decision to award four of the categories, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling and Live Action Short, during commercial breaks. If that isn’t enough to get some members to run against already embattled president John Bailey I’m not sure what else will. If this town loves anything it’s drama and in that context it’s no surprise we’ve got another close Best Picture race coming down to the wire.
At this time last year pundits pondered over whether “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” or “Get Out” could overtake the pseudo-frontrunner “The Shape of Water” to win it all (spoiler: they didn’t). The current race is truly a race even if ABC has no intention of marketing it to audiences. Of course, when one of the contenders, “Roma,” is on rival Netflix, would you want to?
There are effectively three major contenders to win, three who could surprise and two that should be happy to be in the Best Picture race at all. Let’s look over the field, shall we?
1. “Green Book”
Impressively, the controversy over screenwriter and producer Nick Vallelonga hasn’t done much to diminish the adoration many Academy members seem to have for it. In a smart move, Vallelonga has practically disappeared from public view (how his appearance at the Oscars itself will be received is another question) and the film is also a profitable hit for financier Participant Pictures ($100 million+ worldwide). Peter Farrelly‘s drama also won the PGA Award which is the only major guild honor that also uses the preferential ballot voting system (more on that in a moment). Most importantly for Universal and Participant, the film is still loved by a ton of members. Even if it’s not their first choice on the ballot, it is likely their second or third. That could be the difference between Oscar gold or watching another film take the stage at the end of the telecast.
2. “Roma”
Alfonso Cuaron’s celebrated passion project finally took home the top Best Film prize this year at the BAFTA Awards. That’s good news as the membership of the British Academy is much closer to AMPAS than guilds such as PGA, DGA or SAG. On the flip side, how they vote for their top prize is much different. BAFTA does not use the preferential ballot. Granted, there is a ton of passionate support for “Roma” across multiple guilds and you can’t land 10 Oscar nominations without it (and the two acting nods are huge indicators of this). Of course, a film not in the English language has never won Best Picture before in the 90-year history of the Academy (think about that for a minute). The question becomes whether “Roma” can win outright or the second or third pick to win of enough voters with the weighted system. Whatever happens it’s going to be very, very close.
3. “Black Panther”
If “Green Book” doesn’t pull it out because of the preferential ballot than don’t be surprised if Ryan Coogler‘s blockbuster does. “Black Panther” has more support among AMPAS members than pundits will lead you to believe. It also won the SAG ensemble honor which has a 50% track record of lining up with the Best Picture winner (hey, every little bit helps). A lack of directing, writing and acting nominations obviously hurts from a perception standpoint, but that preferential ballot could be everything to Marvel Studios’ cultural touchstone.
4. “The Favourite”
Losing the BAFTA to “Roma” hurt, but Yorgos Lanthimos‘ period piece still has a puncher’s chance of winning Best Picture. More likely, the Searchlight release is looking for upsets in Supporting Actress (Rachel Weisz) and Best Actress (Olivia Colman), assuming you would consider those upsets. Don’t be surprised if “The Favourite” leaves the Dolby with more Oscar statues than any other film.
5. “A Star is Born”
We’re not sure where things went wrong for “Star,” but when Bradley Cooper was snubbed from the Directing category it pretty much crushed its chances of taking Best Picture easily. Like “The Favourite” it has a slim shot at winning through the preferential ballot.
6. “BlacKkKlansman”
In theory, Spike Lee’s Cannes winner has it all. Directing, Writing, Editing and Acting nominations. All categories you historically need to take the top prize. Even “Roma” and “Green Book” don’t have all those bases covered. But, the Focus Features hit came up short at one awards ceremony after another when the top prize was announced. Lee has a great shot at winning his first non-honorary Oscar in the Adapted Screenplay category, but Best Picture seems like a long shot.
7. “Bohemian Rhapsody”
While “Green Book” seems to have weathered the controversy storm, “Bohemian Rhapsody” has not. The film that wants everyone to forget its director (he who shall not be named) missed out on key Directing and Adapted Screenplay nominations. The Golden Globe win was a huge boost that likely assured the 20th Century Fox blockbuster of earning a Best Picture nod in the first place, but it’s hard to see it duplicating that feat at the Academy Awards even with a preferential ballot in the mix. Where things look much sunnier is in the Best Actor race where Rami Malek‘s triumphant run should continue a week from Sunday night (something this pundit went on record saying would happen in November).
8. “Vice”
Maybe Amy Adams finally cracks the Oscar ceiling in Supporting Actress. Maybe Hank Corwin earns his second Film Editing Oscar. Maybe Christian Bale takes home his second Best Actor Oscar. Maybe Adam McKay also gets his second Oscar in the Original Screenplay category. More likely, the Annapurna release takes Makeup and Hairstyling and that’s about it.
For more updated predictions of the major categories click the links below. Final predictions will be posted no later than Friday, Feb. 21.
Best Picture
Best Director
Actress
Actor
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Foreign Language Film