Hollywood is obviously focused on franchises, sequels and leveraging any kind of brand-based intellectual property: ‘Lego,’ ‘Angry Birds,’ Pez, Emojis — you name it. But as we posited earlier in the week, brands and franchises aren’t always a sure bet, and summer 2016 could prove that with painful and expensive definitiveness. This weekend, we have more proof of this disturbing trend for Hollywood. Paramount’s “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows” opened, and while it was number one at the box-office with $35.2 million, this is a significant drop — a 46% plummet — from the original film released in 2014 that opened to $65.5 million.
Major drops for sequels has been the story of 2016 so far. ‘Alice In Wonderland 2’ opened to a devastating -76.8% from the first film that grossed over $115 million in 2010. Similarly, “Neighbors 2” had a major drop from the original film, more than half the original gross (-55.7%); and the same applied for “X-Men: Apocalypse,” down 27.6% from ‘Days Of Future Past.’ Speaking of ‘Apocalypse,’ the film fell a rather significant, and more than expected, 66% in weekend two and grossed $22.3 million dollars. Fortunately for 20th Century Fox, international grosses are doing quite well: $286 million internationally for a surprisingly strong $402.5 million globally ($59 million of that coming from China).
The bad news for ‘Apocalypse’ is it’s going to fall very short of $200 million domestically and will probably tap out around $160 million at home. But this means, thanks to overseas audiences, the film has an easy shot at crossing $500 million worldwide, and if it’s lucky, hitting somewhere in the neighborhood of $650 million globally if international audiences keep coming in droves. That would still be significantly lower than the $747 million ‘Days Of Future Past’ made in 2014. For further comparison of its weak domestic showing, tapping out at $160 million at home would be lower than the critically panned “X-Men Origins: Wolverine” and only the sixth highest-grossing X-Men film out of nine movies.
Warner Bros.’ romantic drama “Me Before You,” starring “Game Of Thrones”’ Emilia Clarke, fared a lot better than recent non-franchises, grossing $18.2 million in its opening weekend. That’s certainly a success and bodes well for future grosses and repeat viewings. Dropping 60.2% in week two, it’s very possible that “Alice Through the Looking Glass” could end up being the lowest-grossing follow-up sequel of all time. The original amassed a spectacular $1 billion worldwide and ‘Alice 2,’ at this rate, could easily finish around $300 million at most (a 72.2% drop). Talk about a sequel that no one wanted.
“The Angry Birds Movie” added nearly another $10 million for an $86.6 million domestic total for three weeks of release. Marvel’s “Captain America: Civil War” is just $12 million shy of $400 million domestically and so far is the highest-grossing film of 2016. The film has accumulated $1.13 billion so far — the fourth highest-grossing Marvel film of all time — and may surpass “Iron Man 3” for the 3rd slot behind two ‘Avengers’ movies. If IP is failing at home, and it sure appears it is, Marvel is proving they’re exempt from such trends so far.
In a wide release of 2,311 screens, The Lonely Island crew and Universal‘s “Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping” bombed beyond belief with a $4.6 million opening, easily the lowest-grossing wide release of 2016 so far. According to Box Office Mojo’s numbers, this would be the 4th lowest opening weekend of all time for a film in over 2,000 theaters.
“The Jungle Book” has had a spectacular run for Disney this year, grossing $895.1 million worldwide. However, now in week eight, it looks like it’s going to fall short of the projected $1 billion gross. Disney won’t be sweating it, because in box-office milestones, their animated hit “Zootopia” just crossed the $ 1 billion mark. Expect lots of sequels; a franchise is born. Unfortunately for Warner Bros., detective buddy comedy “The Nice Guys” is about to fall out of the top 10 and is still under the $30 million mark. Considering there will be no international saving grace, the $50 million-costing picture is likely going to become a write-down for the studio.
All the films in limited release, “Art Bastard,” “The Witness,” “Time To Choose” and “The Fits,” showed ok-to-modest numbers at best, further illustrating the challenges indie films face in a blockbuster-focused, Peak TV-heavy era.
1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows — $35,250,000
2. X-Men: Apocalypse — $22,325,000 ($116,498,232)
3. Me Before You — $18,270,000
4. Alice Through the Looking Glass — $10,691,000 ($50,772,597)
5. The Angry Birds Movie — $9,775,000 ($86,677,726)
6. Captain America: Civil War — $7,591,000 ($388,940)
7. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising — $4,700,000 ($48,560,225)
8. Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping — $4,630,000
9. The Jungle Book — $4,247,000 ($347,469,661)
10. The Nice Guys — $3,520,000 ($29,120,850)